According to consultancy firm Safras & Mercados, expectations for a Brazilian Arabica coffee super crop in 2026—close to the record harvest of 2020—are gradually weakening due to adverse weather conditions.
Safras emphasizes that this doesn’t mean Brazil won’t see a strong harvest next year, but it depends heavily on timely rainfall to trigger the flowering stage. Market forecasts suggest that by the end of this month, more rainfall could arrive, which would be critical for the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter to secure a strong 2026 Arabica crop.
For global buyers in the U.S. and Europe, this uncertainty highlights the importance of planning ahead. Coffee brands not only need to secure reliable supply, but also maximize value through premium coffee packaging solutions. With AT PACK’s custom coffee bags, cups, and boxes, roasters and retailers can differentiate themselves even during volatile market conditions.
Brazil’s Arabica output plays a central role in balancing global coffee inventories. After years of lower stocks, the market is counting on a big 2026 harvest to rebuild reserves. Concerns about Brazil’s crop, combined with low inventories and strong demand from U.S. roasters—who are also reducing imports from Brazil due to tariffs—have been key drivers of the recent price surge on the New York Stock Exchange.
At the same time, higher prices have encouraged growers to invest in crop renewal and replanting. In many Arabica regions, replanting is becoming more common than expanding acreage. With prices at multi-year highs, producers want to capitalize quickly on the opportunity, replacing older trees that take longer to recover with new plantings that can deliver faster results.
For coffee businesses in the U.S. and Europe, rising prices and supply risks require a strategic response. While securing green coffee supply is the top priority, equally important is brand positioning at the retail level.
In a competitive market where consumers are paying more, presentation becomes crucial. Premium, eco-friendly, and customized coffee packaging enhances perceived value, builds consumer trust, and reinforces brand loyalty.
This is where AT PACK custom coffee packaging provides a competitive edge. From sustainable coffee bags to branded takeaway cups and gift boxes, AT PACK helps international coffee roasters and retailers create packaging that not only protects freshness but also tells a compelling brand story.
While Brazil’s 2026 Arabica super crop outlook is becoming less certain, one thing is clear: volatility in global coffee supply and prices will remain. For coffee brands targeting the U.S. and European markets, building resilience goes beyond sourcing beans—it requires strengthening consumer connection through premium coffee packaging.
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