Coffee prices are expected to remain uncertain and volatile in the coming months, despite the completion of Brazil’s new harvest season. Early September witnessed a sharp decline in coffee futures, followed quickly by a rebound to recent highs — highlighting the fragile balance in the global coffee market.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is facing climate challenges. Reports show that Minas Gerais, the country’s top coffee-growing region, received almost no rainfall last week. This is not a favorable sign as coffee trees approach the flowering stage, a crucial period for next year’s crop.
For coffee roasters, importers, and retailers, such climate risks mean increased uncertainty in raw material costs. This is why many global coffee brands seek to stabilize their value chain with AT PACK’s custom coffee packaging solutions, ensuring product quality, brand consistency, and better cost control even during market fluctuations.
The latest data shows ICE-certified Arabica coffee stocks fell to 679,548 bags, the lowest level in 16 months. With supply challenges, U.S. trade tariffs, and shrinking inventories, analysts expect high volatility to persist in the weeks and months ahead.
Amid these market tensions, choosing the right custom coffee bags, cups, and packaging boxes from AT PACK helps coffee companies stand out while optimizing logistics efficiency and brand visibility.
Market reports reveal a clear divergence between Arabica and Robusta coffee production:
- Arabica coffee output is under pressure:
- Conab revised its Arabica forecast down to 38.05 million bags, a 14% drop year-over-year.
- StoneX estimates only 36.5 million bags, down 18.4%.
- Itaú BBA forecasts 38.7 million bags, 11.5% lower than last year.
- Robusta coffee reaches record levels:
- Conab estimates 25.3 million bags, an all-time high.
- StoneX raised its forecast to 25.8 million bags, up 21.9%.
- Itaú BBA maintains production at 24.1 million bags.
Overall, Brazil’s 2025/26 crop is expected to reach 62.3–63.3 million bags, down 3–5% compared to the previous year. While record Robusta output offers some balance, Arabica’s decline remains the market’s biggest concern.
In this environment of uncertainty, coffee businesses must prepare for both supply shocks and cost fluctuations. Alongside sourcing strategies, brand owners are increasingly investing in sustainable and custom coffee packaging to strengthen customer loyalty and secure long-term growth.
At AT PACK, we specialize in custom coffee packaging solutions — from coffee bags and takeaway cups to gift boxes and accessories — helping global coffee brands navigate volatility while maintaining a strong market presence.
AT PACK Custom Coffee Packaging – All your Coffee Packaging in One Place
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