Brazil’s coffee production has been under pressure for several years, and 2025 is proving no different. Since 2020, output has consistently fallen short of expectations due to unfavorable weather, which continues to reduce productivity and profitability across Brazil’s coffee farms. These challenges are not only shaping the 2025/26 crop but are also casting doubts over the 2026/27 Arabica coffee harvest potential.
In 2025, Brazil faced a series of unusual and adverse weather events not seen in at least four years. For example:
Harvesting was still underway when out-of-season rains triggered premature flowering in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-producing state.
In May, the region was unusually dry, followed by heavy rains in June and July, creating unstable growing conditions.
Early flowering occurred, with 10–15% of potential output already visible in southern Minas, and up to 25% in Alta Mogiana and parts of São Paulo. However, many of these early blooms have since withered.
For coffee roasters and importers in the U.S. and Europe, these production swings highlight the risks of relying solely on supply trends. That’s why many coffee brands are reinforcing their value chain with AT PACK’s custom coffee packaging solutions, ensuring brand consistency, supply stability, and customer trust despite market uncertainty.
At present, rainfall is critically needed to sustain flowering. Yet, persistent dryness has already caused withering and leaf drop across key plantations. In August, frosts and hailstorms in southern Minas Gerais further damaged crop recovery. As a result, many farms experienced poor leaf replacement, weakening the physiological foundation needed for strong flowering and fruit set.
Even if weather conditions improve from now on, the upper limit of Brazil’s Arabica production potential has already been lowered. Analysts estimate that nearly 3 million bags of potential output for the 2026/27 season have been lost before the flowering stage is fully defined.
Theoretically, Brazil’s coffee output should rise in 2026 because of the biennial “on-year” effect that normally boosts Arabica harvests. However, since the record 2020 crop, these on-year gains have been much smaller than expected. Current projections still indicate higher production next year, but not at the record levels once forecast.
For buyers in the U.S. and Europe, this means higher price volatility and tighter supply conditions. It also underscores the importance of strengthening brand resilience. Many global coffee companies are already investing in sustainable and custom coffee packaging to maintain consumer confidence, extend shelf life, and differentiate their products on store shelves.
As Brazil battles unpredictable weather, the coffee supply chain faces growing uncertainty. While production may improve in 2026, risks remain high. To stay competitive in volatile markets, roasters and brands need more than beans — they need reliable partners.
AT PACK specializes in custom coffee packaging solutions — including coffee bags, takeaway cups, gift boxes, and branded accessories — designed to help U.S. and European coffee brands thrive even in times of market instability.
AT PACK Custom Coffee Packaging – All your Coffee Packaging in One Place
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